Syria: Assad falls, but no celebration for the Syrian masses

The fall of the barbarous Assad regime is a direct consequence of the wars raging in Ukraine, Palestine, and Lebanon. We are glad that Assad has gone, but are sceptical about the future for the Syrian toiling masses.

Aleppo fell, and soon after the capital, Damascus. This was despite the support of Russia, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Iranian regime. The Islamists of Hayat Tharir al-Sham (HTS) , based in the Idlib area, were instrumental in capturing these cities. It was originally an affiliate of Al Qaeda, and the Islamic State leader al-Baghdadi also had connections with it. The leader of HTS, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, is putting himself forward as a prospective new leader of Syria. He promises freedom and democratic rights for all, but bearing in mind HTS’s history, its repressive record in Idlib, and similar promises made by the Taliban in Afghanistan, then it seems that women and LGBQT people have much to fear if HTS establishes overall control, as do the Kurds in Syria.

Other forces ranged against the Assad regime are the Syrian National Army (SNA), openly sponsored by the Erdogan government of the Turkish state. This is an alliance of Islamist militias, militarily backed up by the Turkish army. Its main preoccupation, under the guidance of its Turk masters, are the Kurdish forces in Syria. They attacked the Kurdish controlled region of Afrin in 2018, and carried out ethnic cleansing there. Now they are attacking the Kurdish region of Tell Rifat, backed up by Turkish artillery. Here the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are located, an alliance of Kurds, Arabs, Assyrians, Turkmen and others. 120,000 refugees from Afrin have fled there. The SDF also held a small area of Aleppo until recently.

Due to the attack on Tell Rifat, the SDF has now withdrawn from Aleppo. The SNA has seized Tell Rifat city and the refugee camps. The SDF is now negotiating the evacuation of hundreds of thousands, many of them already refugees from Afrin, to Rojava and Manbij. The situation thus remains perilous for Syrian Kurds.

Also in fear are Syria’s Shiites, who fear reprisals from the Sunni HTS, as do the Alawites, a splinter from Shia Islam, and to which religious sect the Assad family belonged.

The fall of the Assad regime has dealt a severe blow to both Russia and Iran. Russia has been unable to provide the military support Assad needed to survive, tied down as the Russian forces are in Ukraine. Similarly, Iran has been damaged by the attacks on Hezbollah in Lebanon by Israeli forces.

The USA, Israel, and Turkey benefit from the new situation. Meanwhile, the Syrian masses continue to suffer, with the HTS, SNA and the military forces of the Assad regime, which are now manoeuvring to survive, ranged against them. This is another stage in the inter-imperialist rivalry between the USA and its allies, including the wily Erdogan regime, eager to further its own interests, on one hand, and Russia and Iran  on the other. It remains to be seen whether the SNA and/or the HTS , will move against the Autonomous Administration in north east Syria, a Kurdish controlled enclave.

Already though, Israel has bombed chemical weapons and long range rocket sites in Syria, afraid of them falling into Islamist hands. Turkey has bombed the Kurdish zone, bringing it into conflict with its NATO ally, the United States, which backs the Kurds.For its part, the USA has bombed Islamic State sites in central Syria.

Photo: Hossam el-Hamalawy, Creative Commons Licence.